“It is not clear what might happen if a military group were to seize Russian tactical nuclear weapons.”
Francois Diaz-Martin[1]
“All warfare is based on deception …”
Sun Tzu[2]
“OTR warheads are stored in an incomplete assembly, the so-called readiness stage (sometimes referred to as SG-“4”). This means that the neutron tubes are not installed, the MED electronic detonators are not connected, and the electrical system is not connected to power sources … Without the 12th GUMO specialist, they surely wouldn’t be able to complete the warhead.”
Matej Rafael Risko[3]
Like many of you, I have been following the extraordinary recent events in Russia. The 24-hour stand-off between the mercenary Wagner Group and the Russian Defense Ministry appears to be over. In my view, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aborted march on Moscow is the most bizarre episode of the 17-month Russo-Ukrainian War (so far), and it’s strange, sudden ending, has already provoked an endless amount of speculation in the mainstream press and social media platforms.
So let me take a stab at my thoughts on the topic.
As most of you know, my primary axiom when it comes to talking about such events—what I like to call the Akers corollary—is that nothing is ever as it seems.
In this vein, on Monday (June 26, 2023), a good friend sent me a video by Amir Tsarfati concerning the possibility that the Wagner Group now possesses tactical nuclear weapons. Tsarfati is an Israeli-born Christian commentator who typically specializes in analyzing events in the Middle East. I don’t always agree with him, but his viewpoints are consistently well-reasoned and biblically sound. This is the crux of his argument: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has been extremely muted in handling Prigozhin and the “coup” participants; the Wagner Group column stopped well short of Moscow when—by all appearances—they had encountered very little opposition and had things going their way; and we still don’t know all of the details of the deal brokered by Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko.[4]
As one possible answer to this perplexing puzzle, Tsarfari suggested that what we may be seeing is a case of maskirovka (literally “disguise”), a Russian military form of deception. In his view, Prigozhin never intended for his convoy to reach Moscow and stopped 200 miles short after reaching their real goal, Voronezh-45, a facility close to the central Russian city of Voronezh, where tactical nuclear weapons were stored. These weapons could have been loaded onto rebel trucks.
Why?
If Russian forces opt, in the future, to use tactical nuclear weapons to halt Ukraine’s ongoing offense, then Putin has “plausible deniability”— (two favorite words for anyone with an intelligence background)—he can deny he authorized use of such weapons, blaming it instead on rogue mercenary groups.
So, if that is happening, what we are watching now is pure Kabuki theater: orchestrated public statements and dance moves by Prigozhin, Putin and the Kremlin, designed to cover what’s really going on. Prigozhin flies to Belarus to start his “exile,” the authorities drop their criminal cases against the mutineers, Putin rails against “traitors” in public statements, and Wagner group units are welcomed to Belarus.[5]
There may even be a shake-up in the Russian military high command as part of the ruse.
Because we know so little about the deal that ended the uprising, or, for that matter, Prigozhin’s true aims and motives, conspiracy theories abound. Circulating in the far-right social media, for example, is a conspiracy of the CIA (the favorite conspiratorial whipping boy on both political extremes) to concoct a plan with Putin and Prigozhin to divert international attention from the Hunter Biden story.[6] To me, that is just ignorance gone to seed.
What about the idea that the Wagner Group may have obtained tactical nuclear weapons, a purported nuclear heist? Pro-Ukraine Twitter accounts quoted “The Freedom of Russia Legion” saying the Wagner Group took control of the Voronezh-45 site.[7] Similar claims were made by Vladimir Osechkin, the exiled former Russian entrepreneur-turned-human rights advocate as well as Igor Sushko, “Winds of Change” founder and pro-Ukraine activist.[8] Some critics point out, however, that the overhead images reportedly showing the Voronezh-45 site were incorrect.
Several so-called experts have been skeptical that the Wagner Group would be able to deploy the tactical nuclear weapons, even if they obtained them from Voronezh-45. These arguments are mostly technical in nature. The OTR-21 “Tochka” is a Soviet-era mobile short-range ballistic missile launch system—the most likely tactical nuclear weapons to be taken by the Wagner Group—and stored in an incomplete assembly. (As I mentioned in one of the quotes at the beginning of the missive). Even if the rebels gained control of all the physical components, and assembled them, they could not necessarily use it. Moreover, any rogue group would have to mate the warhead with a functional delivery system, a complex process at best, that likely would require active (or forced) cooperation from Russian nuclear storage personnel. These difficulties further ignore the question of activation codes (permissive action links or PALS).[9]
There is also, unsurprisingly, misinformation. Videos on social media showing Russian air forces “engaging” the rebels was, in fact, CGI footage from the Arma 3 video game.[10]
In sum, is it possible that the whole episode was an absolute ploy? Certainly. Is it possible that Putin is more “crazy like a fox” than a whimpering, worrying, leader who escaped a troublesome coup by plane? Certainly. And what of Prigozhin—Putin’s chef—who assembled a force of 25,000 mercenaries (many of whom were former prisoners) to fight the costliest battles on the Ukrainian front?[11] Is he cowering for his life, staying away from windows or high-rise apartments in fear of Putin’s thuggish revenge (as some western commentators would have us believe)?
Have we really seen the last of him?
My view, for what it is worth, is that we have only seen Act 1 of this play unfold.[12]In the midst of all the uncertainties, one thing is crystal clear: if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons in the future, and Putin denies culpability to gain global sympathy, the whole story has been orchestrated to accomplish that end.
If this happens, it means that Putin and the upper echelon of the Russian military have determined that the war with Ukraine will increasingly worsen—and the bulk of Western military equipment has yet to arrive—leaving tactical nuclear weapons as their only choice to turn the tide.
Or, perhaps it is just as it appears, the storyline that has been laid out for us by the western media.
Perhaps.
But remember, nothing is as it seems.
[1] Francois Diaz-Martin, “What would happen if a military group took over Russia’s nuclear arsenal? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Jun. 26, 2023. [2] Sun Tzu, The Art of War (from Chapter One, “Laying Plans”) [3] Risko is a research fellow with a focus on nuclear deterrence at the Institute of International Studies, Charles University in Prague. He contends that possessing tactical nuclear weapons and arming them for use on the battlefield are two different things. Quote is found in: Yevgeny Kuklychev, “Did Wagner Rebels Capture Warheads At Russia’s Secret Nuclear Facility,” Newsweek, Jun. 23, 2023. [4] Gareth Jones, “Belarus leader says he talked Prigozhin back from brink,” Reuters, Jun. 27, 2023. Lukashenko claimed it was an emotional, expletive-laden phone call with Prigozhin, who told the Wagner Group leader they would be “crushed like a bug”; at the same time, he advised Putin to refrain from “rushing” to crush the mutineers. [5] Angus MacSwan and Alex Richardson, “Mercenary chief Prigozhin starts exile in Belarus, Putin praises Russian troops,” Reuters, Jun.27, 2023.See also, excellent putsch postmortem article by Yaroslav Trofimov, “After Weekend of Chaos in Russia, Questions Remain Over Fate of Wagner,” The Wall Street Journal, Jun. 26, 2023. [6] “Did Wagner Rebels Capture Warheads.” [7] Ibid. [8] Ibid. [9] “What would happen if a military group took over.” [10] “Did Wagner Rebels Capture Warheads.” [11] See, among others, Hugh Lawson, “Explainer: Who is Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin?” Reuters, Jun. 24, 2023. [12] U.S. Secretary of State Blinken has the same view, see “After Weekend of Chaos.”